A simulation model evaluating costs of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) for a typical U.S. cow-calf producer and benefits of multiple test and cull strategies

摘要

Increasingly, veterinarian organizations in the United States recommend the control and eradication of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV). Cow-calf producers comprise 35% of U.S. cattle; however, research on the effects of BVDV in these herds is limited. To gain a better understanding of the pathology of BVDV in cow-calf producers, a stochastic simulation model was developed in C++ to measure epidemiological and financial outcomes. Additional simulations were run to evaluate changes in producer profit for several test and cull strategies. Introducing a PI animal decreased profit by an average of {dollar}13,971 over 10 years. When a second generation of PI animals was born, profit decreased an average of {dollar}18,738 over 10 years. Of the test and cull methods run, herds with PI animals profited the most by testing newborn calves before the start of breeding each year. When one PI animal was introduced, testing newborn calves each year before breeding increased profit by an average of {dollar}8,498 over 10 years. For producers with a low risk of PI introduction, testing retained calves after weaning when motivated by an unusually small number of calves was the least costly strategy and successfully identified 77% of simulations that introduced one PI animal in the herd.